This is a scenario of Games Workshop's Middle Earth Strategy Battle Game, the first in the latest Scouring of the Shire sourcebook. Here we see Bill Ferny causing trouble in Bree.
Evil wins by quartering the good army. ("Quartering" in the sense of reducing them to 25%, not in the sense of giving them a place to stay.) There is a caveat, though: two of the casualties have to be caused personally by Bill Ferny.
Good wins by killing Bill Ferny. It's a draw if both victory conditions occur on the same turn, or the Good force is reduced without Bill Ferny getting two kills.
(Click on any image to see an enlargement.)
The Good forces are 4 hobbit militia and eight Bree villagers, here represented by Laketown Militia. The villagers are armed with daggers, not the swords and spears actually shown on the figure.
The Evil forces are variously-armed Ruffians led by Bill Ferny. As there are no heroes in the Good army, Bill has the only Might point on the board.
The action takes place in Bree. Getting wind of Bill Ferny's evil machinations, the Good forces have gathered on the doorstep of the Prancing Pony. The Evil forces are closing in from the eastern board edge.
As always, Good starts the scenario with Priority.
The hobbits stay put so as to Throw Stones if the Ruffians advance. The Ruffians oblige them, though the archers move to take up sniping positions.
It turns out the hobbit reputation for stone-throwing is overstated, as three of the shots miss entirely and the only hit fails to Wound. Evil archery is no better.
Casualties: Good 0, Evil 0
Evil Priority, 3-3.
Evil moves to engage, being careful to protect Bill Ferny. The camera has swung around 120° clockwise to get a better view of the action. The whips miss, and there's no other Shooting this turn.
The Combat honors are about even, as one hobbit, one villager, and one ruffian go down.
Casualties: Good 2, Evil 1
Good Priority, 3-1.
The dead ruffian has left in a hole in the line through which the Good forces could reach Bill Ferny. So he uses his only Might point to call a Heroic Move. Most of the Good models are engaged, with the noteable exceptions being two villagers who move around the town well in hopes of reaching Bill Ferny that way. The ruffians' whips again have no effect.
Combat proves disastrous for Evil as three ruffians go down for no Good losses at all!
Casualties: Good 2, Evil 4
Evil Priority, 6-1.
The collapse of the Evil line in the center has made Bill Ferny chargeable. Luck has shifted back to Evil, though, and this crucial Priority roll breaks his way.
Evil charges, intent on locking down as many Good models as possible. Bill Ferny himself moves to engage, being careful to position himself such that he's facing only one Good model. The whips miss again as usual.
Evil's luck continues in the Combat phase, as two hobbits and two villagers die with no losses at all to the Evil player. Bill Ferny has one of his two needed kills.
Casualties: Good 6, Evil 4
Evil Priority, 6-2.
Evil charges; in the process of surrounding the last hobbit a ruffian whip finally hits and takes out a villager.
The Evil luck streak continues into the Combat phase, as one hobbit and two other villagers are slain. Bill Ferny has gotten his second kill, and, with only two models left on the board, Good has been reduced to <25%. Evil Victory!
Casualties: Good 10, Evil 4
That was an incredibly lucky couple of turns at the end for Evil. The Ruffians were often outnumbered 2:1 and were either winning fights anyway or, if they lost, the Good player failed to Wound. Which is, I suppose, the "historical" result, as Bill Ferny shows up in a few of the following scenarios.
Small scenarios such as this with few Might points are always going to be a little more luck-dependent than their larger brethren. It's pretty easy to see this going the other way had the dierolls gone the other way; see the Top Table Gaming replay for an example.
Still some good fun, though, and worth a couple of plays.